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TRACK SPECIFIC BREEDING Finally, what about the fraternal grandsire himself? Nearly every pedigree rating book or service fails to pay all that much attention to the fraternal grandsire other than noting that he’s the father of the sire himself. This is a bit bizarre, especially when these same books or services give the broodmare sire half or a quarter of his overall sire rating if he were the sire himself, while at the same time ignoring the father of the actual sire! In other words, the maternal grandfather of the horse that we are attempting to rate gets a certain amount of credit for the offspring, but the fraternal grandfather gets nothing? That’s far too much for me to swallow---period! It makes absolutely no sense to me whatsoever. In a pure mathematical sense the grandfathers should be rated exactly the same or they shouldn’t be rated at all! Breeding is indeed an inexact science, but not quite that "inexact" where one should accept one grandparent as being influential while not the other! Ignoring one side of the pedigree equation, or any equation for that matter, can’t possibly be correct! But one thing is positively certain because we see it every single day on track and have seen it for many years in Southern California. When checking out the pedigree on any runner, the more winners that his sire, his fraternal grandsire and/or his maternal grandsire have produced together over a specific dirt or turf surface at a specific track, the greater the likelihood that their offspring will perform much like the positive parental lineage itself! No Rockey Scientry here, just some good old common sense that can be backed up empirically with 10 years of cold statistics! Every offspring clearly draws ability from all of his or her total parentage! Sometimes (and only sometimes) the sire is strongest. At other times the grandfathers are equally as strong. And finally in rare occasions, the only member of the equation who has EVER won a race over a specific surface in question is the dam herself! That said, how do we calculate a "track-specific rating" for any individual horse at the SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA HORSES TO WATCH? We are as tricky as can be. We take that good old common sense and treat all 3 sires involved in the lineage as equals! We merely add together the total number of past wins of the sire, grandsire and broodmare sire to get our final rating. Did I just see all those "pedigree" gurus do backflips? Is Takach literally out of his mind? Perhaps, but one thing is unmistakably evident to those who actually use our "track-specific" WINNING SIRE LISTS every day vs. other commercial offerings. The "track-specific" exclusive ratings by the SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA HORSES TO WATCH literally buries any and all other commercial services ---at least in Southern California. And if you need proof, just ask any of our moneymaking clientele! I’ll guarantee you that none of them would think of betting so much as 2 bucks without first consulting our invaluable "track-specific" sire ratings to see if the runner in question measured up verses his competition. So where does this leave you? If you wager on the Southern California circuit, we do all the work for you at the SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA HORSES TO WATCH. If wagering outside of California, I’m afraid you’ll have to do the "gruntwork" all by yourself until the rest of the world catches up to us. You’ll need 4-5 past years of the actual race charts from your specific home track, as well as considerable time to create your own data base. This assumes that you saved all of your past racing information on a daily basis or have access to same thru a commercial source. Merely tabulate by sire, the number of wins for each sire from every racing chart for the past 4-5 years and do it by surface and do it by individual track. Run your final list in straight alpha order placing the total number of wins by that sire at the end of each horse’s name. You’ll find these lists very easy to work with when handicapping any race at your specific home oval. And if you’d like to really fine tune your personal "track-specific" sire lists, you can even further subdivide each surface into sprints and routes. Once your "track-specific" data base is in place, it requires very little maintenance that can be done in less than 5 minutes a day. The rewards to you? Who knows outside of Southern California! I can’t guarantee that this rating process that we employ in Southern California will actually work exactly the same in New York, Florida, Kentucky or anywhere else. We’ve never computed our ratings outside of Southern California, as we don’t "spray" our racing coverage over the entire country with our weekly publication. We "focus" and concern ourselves only with our own circuit of Del Mar, Santa Anita and Hollywood. But one thing is positively for sure. If we ever started up a New York, Kentucky or Florida division of the SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA HORSES TO WATCH, our publication for that specific circuit would absolutely include "track-specific" sire ratings! If these ratings work in Southern California for our 3 racetracks that each produce their own individual statistics, one would find it hard to believe that they wouldn’t work in New York using Belmont, Aqueduct and Saratoga, or any other circuit for that matter. And once you actually understand and see their incredible strength, you’ll become just like me. You’ll rarely bet another horse on your own circuit unless the pedigree says that you can. The doubts of whether or not a certain horses will "get" a specific surface for the first time (such as shippers, first time starters, first time turf or dirt starters etc), will quickly disappear. Only you and perhaps a few others willing to work as hard will have this incredible "inside information"! This ends our series on Track Specific Breeding. Go to SCHTW and see the actual numbers for any race day you choose. xxxx
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