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THE IMMUTABLE LAWS OF HANDICAPPING---PART 23
(So far in this series, we’ve touched on weight, layoff horses, first-time starters, repeaters, trouble horses, asking a horse to
do something new, overlays and underlays, stretching out, shortening up, “getting out”, never betting maiden winners to repeat, beaten favorites, last-out claims and turf racing).
We continue with “Stay away from turf racing” that began with Part 15.
10---TURF LAYOFFS
A vast number of turf horses run remarkably well off extended layoffs.
Personally, I’d rather play a turf returnee vs. a dirt comebacker any day of the week. I feel more mutuelly comfortable with them because it’s been my life experience that grass horses return with their
“running shoes” on-----much more so than dirt horses!
The income-producing shelf life of a turf horse is normally longer than that of a dirt runner. Turf horses run fewer annual races and pound
for pound, they are much more dependable in every department to include coming off a layoff. Fewer races produce fewer physical problems. The less problematic any runner, the longer his career. The
intense front leg pounding taken by dirt horses over various man-made dirt courses verses turf horses running over more “natural” grass surfaces is like night and day!
Were you to survey the number of
dirt horses running in front wraps vs. turf horses running in front wraps, the conclusion is inescapable. Proportionally, many more dirt horses run in front bandages than do turf horses-----at least on all the
major racing circuits. When you drop into the minor leagues, far more horses are problematic and it wouldn’t shock me to see these percentages for front wraps come much closer together. Grass racing on
the major Southern California circuit is only for better stock with 40K claiming races are the bottom vs. 8K races for dirt horses.
This is most likely why I feel better betting a turf
returnee. Because overall, they are much better horses to begin with and as mentioned above, race less frequently than their dirt counterparts. It stands to reason that 40K claiming horses are better than 8K
claiming horses or the 8K runners would be racing in 40K races.
But it goes even deeper than that.
Since most extended layoffs occur on a farm where the vacationing horses can romp all
day in pastures, a return to the racing wars on a very similar surface such as a turf course might explain their willingness or ability to run more strongly in their initial outings without the “tightener races” we
see so often with dirt horses.
There are a couple of things to look for with first out turf vacationers.
One thing that commands my utmost attention is a turf returnee’s morning
workout tab leading up to today’s grass race.
Whenever a trainer works his vacationer over the same exact turf surface as today’s turf race, look out! This horse is probably well-meant and
I do mean well-meant!
Suppose we are handicapping a turf route at Santa Anita and we have it down to 2 returning vacationers. We’ve thrown out the balance for various
reasons. Both returnees have decent morning worktabs, but one’s drills are all over the dirt verses the other who shows ONLY turf workouts over the Santa Anita turf course itself!
The horse showing ONLY turf workouts is most likely quite serious and “going for the throat” right off the bench, whereas the trainer showing only dirt drills might be “giving” his horse this upcoming race as a
conditioning effort before an all-out effort in his very next start.
I’ve watched this “turf workouts” angle for countless years on both coasts. The more turf drills a grass returnee possesses in
his morning worktab coming off his hiatus, the more likely he is to put in a top effort in his comeback race.
I don’t think I’ve stated anything earthshattering. In fact, it makes good horse
sense. First off, by working him only over the turf, you greatly lessen the chance of injury vs. training on the dirt. And secondly, by working him on the exact surface over which he’ll compete in
the very near future, the horse has no surprises on race day with an unrecognized surface. He’s quite familiar with the turf course after 4, 5, 6 or more grass workouts.
Another thing to
look for when considering a turf returnee is the jockey who is riding him for this returning effort.
Turf trainers have a marked tendency to stay with those riders who have won with their horse in the
past. The furloughed horse will be hard pressed to win coming off the bench. He certainly doesn’t need an unfamiliar rider who might hesitate in a tight spot and cost him the race. A past winning jockey
knows exactly what his horse can do and what he can’t do----there’s rarely any hesitation by horse and rider anywhere in the race.
The last thing to look for in a returning turf horse is the intensity
of his pre-race warm-up. The actual distance of the pre-race exercise should be at least 4 furlongs as it is with any dirt horse. A light canter of 4 furlongs assures you that the red blood cells
are out of the spleen and ready to do their essential job of delivering oxygen.
I prefer a slow and relaxed warm-up with all turf horses, vacationers or not! The horse must still be extending
properly, but keep in mind his pre-race exercise is coming over the dirt course---there should be no rushing or cantering too quickly. While I love intense warm-ups with dirt horses, it’s often
counterproductive with grass runners!
If warmed up too quickly on the dirt, the grass horse is sometimes not fully tractable on the turf, especially into the first turn in routes. Whenever they get too
excited before the race with a fast dirt warm-up, they tend to expend far too much energy far too early in the turf race and seldom have enough left in the tank to finish a winner.
That concludes your
“primer” on how to become a winning turf player. Good hunting!
Conclusion: PART 24 ------PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER!
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