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THE IMMUTABLE LAWS OF HANDICAPPING---PART 21
(So far in this series, we’ve touched on weight, layoff horses, first-time starters, repeaters, trouble horses, asking a
horse to do something new, overlays and underlays, stretching out, shortening up, “getting out”, never betting maiden winners to repeat, beaten favorites, last-out claims and turf racing).
We continue with “Stay away from turf racing” that began in Part 15.
7---TURF RUNNING BIASES
It’s no secret that turf ovals have running biases. Just as on the dirt,
some turf courses favor front runners, some stalker/pressers, some midpack runners and some closers. But
favoritism to a certain running bias is not carved in stone for an entire meet.
Neither are running paths. Changes come about for any number of reasons and we’ll touch on a few of them.
A---Climate
Climate is most likely the reason why running biases and paths change over the turf and the dirt---that is, unless
you live and wager in sunny Southern California where rain is a rarity at least for 46 weeks of the year and often more. However, if living anywhere else, rain usually changes biases overnight. Stated
another way, steady climatic conditions such as constant sunshine favor a consistent running bias, whereas varying climatic conditions do the exact opposite.
Upon a consistent turf course, running
biases often become even more entrenched or “carved in stone” as the course gets pounded and hardened thru daily use. It is not at all uncommon in Southern California for “early” horses to dominate in an
increasing proportion as a specific meet winds down.
If you don’t know the seasonal running turf biases at your home course, go back over your charts for the last couple of years to see if there are
any pronounced differences. Should you find any, exploit them!!!
B---Turf rails moved in and out
Turf rails are
moved in and out constantly in Southern California. The rails can usually be found in 1 of 4 positions. If they are at “zero” and not moved out, this is the normal position of the rails
themselves. If not at zero, they are out 15, 20 or 30 feet.
The reason for the constant movement in and out is not to make handicappers crazy, but rather to spread the “wear and tear” evenly over
the entire course and thus extend it’s shelf life for the entire meet. If this weren’t done, the course would become worthless and very dangerous within 2 weeks.
So what does the movement of the
rails mean to us when we are handicapping a race from a bias standpoint.
Plenty!
Let’s say the rail is out 30 feet and the inside is the best over this specific course (which is usually
the case on any firm and dry grass course). However, it rains overnight before the next day’s card. The wetness is not enough to cancel turf racing and move the races to the dirt, but enough for track
maintenance to move the rails back inwards to zero feet.
Since rain runs down hill, one would assume that when the rails are at zero, the inside is the softest of all paths. If you said that
makes sense, you’re very correct.
While the inside was the place to be on a dry track with the rails out 30 feet, after the rain and movement of the rails back to zero, suddenly the inside becomes a
“bog” and the very last place you want to be running your horse. He’ll only be spinning his wheels until he gets off the deep inside and moves outward to firmer ground. Though he’ll be losing ground, he’ll get
compensated and run better because he can grab the surface instead of slipping and possibly injuring himself.
I can’t possibly go over every scenario where the bias will change when rails move in or
out. You have to pay attention to each individual day, take notes and make the compensating changes to your handicapping.
In our above situation where the wet inside was horrible, suppose
that an even-money favorite got his clock cleaned that day. He ended up a well-beaten 6th after breaking from the 1 or 2 hole and forced to run over the deep inside for half of the race. The negative
running bias he was subjected to that afternoon might have been the culprit producing the loss and not the horse himself!
The very next time this beaten favorite runs, he could be totally dismissed by
the betting public because they didn’t take that negative turf rail into consideration! They lost their money the last time they wagered on him and assume that he’s going the wrong way! More often
than not, he’s just fine and the victim of circumstances.
Good turf horses are not like 10K claiming runners. They aren’t “in and outers”. Their performances are more consistent because for
the most part at all class levels, they are more racing sound than dirt horses. When they run a really bad race, only 4 things are usually possible---they ran against a bias, caught legitimate “trouble” in the
race, actually did get injured, or the connections “stiffed” the horse.
The fact of a bias beating me early in my turf-playing career didn’t take all that long to solidify in my head. I once
overheard a couple of handicappers dismiss a horse I thought to be the best bet on the card. One remarked to the other that “so and so” never picked up his feet last out. Of course he didn’t, he caught a
bad turf rail and ran in quicksand! I knew how deep and giving that inside turf course was that specific day and capitalized!
The crowd must have thought like the gullible guys that I
overheard. My horse went off at a fat 12-1! He won for fun---that quicksand actually enhanced his overall conditioning by “legging him up”. When he ran on a firm course, he performed normally.
If you can follow and properly interpret the rails in and out and biases changing with them, you will cash big win mutuels on a very consistent basis.
NEXT ---PART 22---TURF CONDITION and BOGUS TURF VARIANTS
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