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THE IMMUTABLE LAWS OF HANDICAPPING-----PART 2
(Last week we started off this series with weight and how it usually means nothing when a horse is in top racing condition).
2---STAY AWAY FROM HORSES RETURNING FROM EXTENDED LAYOFFS OF 180 OR MORE DAYS.
Were you to blindly follow this archaic law, you’d soon be broke if playing the lucrative Southern California
circuit. Innumerable runners come “off the bench” after elongated vacations and win with complete authority on our major circuit.
Go tell California Hall Of Famers Bobby Frankel, Neil Drysdale,
Richard Mandella or Ron McAnally that horses coming off 180 day layups aren’t supposed to win and you’ll be laughed out of town.
These guys know what they’re doing. I’ve seen them win off 500 day
layoffs, so why should a short rest of 180 days mean anything to anybody who plays our profitable circuit with regularity?
This is not to say or even imply that every single trainer on our circuit can
accomplish this difficult feat! In fact most can’t, but the good conditioners do so like clockwork.
It took me a while to accept this when first moving to Southern California nearly 10 years
ago. Southern California trainers tend to get horses “ready” off multiple and well-spaced morning workouts, whereas East coast trainers tend more to “run their horses into shape”. But even on the East
coast these days, more and more horses are winning off 180 or more day layups!
This “immutable” law died a long time ago. If trainers back in the 60’s couldn’t win off a 180 or more day layup,
then they simply didn’t know how to! And I’m sure there were trainers in the 30s, 40s, and 50s who could successfully pull this off this tricky maneuver.
At any rate, if you are tossing out
horses in your day-to-day handicapping because they’ve been away 6 months or more, you’re missing the boat! And if they come from the right barn, they’ll beat you senseless when you bet against
them------especially in sunny Southern California!
They win every day in the West off extended vacations. And not only do they win, but they win with authority!
3---AVOID FIRST TIME STARTERS
I wish I had a dollar for every first-time starter that has beaten me in a maiden race, as there have been many more than I care to remember.
Handicapping
theory and practice have come a long way over the past 35 years due to the proliferation of many books on breeding and pedigree, as well as morning workout services that can give the reader a decided edge with
unraced beginners.
Additionally, I’ve personally brought scores of handicappers back into the paddock before every race. Their keen eyes can often spot a “ready to fire” youngster. If the
“firster” warms up nicely, he is very bettable. But I personally need one more thing before I’ll consider betting a beginner. His pedigree has to be very correct for this specific racetrack!
At my weekly SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA HORSES TO WATCH, we offer our meet-specific winning sire lists for both the dirt and the turf to all our clients before every meet begins. As far as I know, we are the
only informational service in the country with track or meet-specific sire lists. They’re worth their weight in platinum!
This shouldn’t surprise anyone, especially our readers. We’ve
always offered original and state-of-the-art handicapping and wagering information to our select and knowledgeable clientele, along with our up-to-the-minute “physicality” reporting!
You can’t begin to
imagine the difference between a meet-specific sire list and an ordinary generic “universal” top sire list. If you’ve never used a meet-specific list, one day’s use will convert you in short order and for the
rest of your horseplaying career.
Who cares if this or that sire wins 20 or 25% of the time with his first-time starters “universally”. If the sire in question can’t produce any winners over your
specific track, what good is he to you?
Case in point, CEE’S TIZZY has thrown over 44 winners over the past 3 years at Hollywood Park and is the track-leading sire on the dirt at this Inglewood
oval.
Move over to Del Mar and this sire (CEE’S TIZZY) has thrown only 8 winners over the past 3 years, whereas BERTRANDO leads all “seaside” dirt sires with 27 victories! Continue your
journey to the Santa Anita dirt course and the undisputed King is neither CEE’S TIZZY nor BERTRANDO. By far and away, IN EXCESS is the leader and has produced an incredible 55 winners over the past 3
years!
Have I made my point?
Betting first-time starters and expecting to win without breeding stats from a “meet or track-specific” winning sire list is sheer folly. You’re
wagering in total darkness with outdated and narrow-thinking methodology that went out with the “hula hoop”! You’re going to get killed at the mutuel windows with first time starters!
On the
other hand, betting first-time starters can be very profitable if you know exactly what you are doing and have the correct information-----to include the all-important meet or track-specific winning sire
lists!
If you’re not creating meet or track-specific winning sire lists on your home circuit, this serves as a wake-up call that you are missing some of the “best bets” in our game to include all
turf racing.
Why? Because so few players know anything about such meet-specific winning sire lists or their mutuel potentiality!
NEXT -----PART 3
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