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THE IMMUTABLE LAWS OF HANDICAPPING---PART 19
(So far in this series, we’ve touched on weight, layoff horses, first-time starters, repeaters, trouble horses, asking a horse
to do something new, overlays and underlays, stretching out, shortening up, “getting out”, never betting maiden winners to repeat, beaten favorites, last-out claims and turf racing).
We continue with “Stay away from turf racing” that began in Part 15.
5A---JOCKEY/TRAINER COMBINATIONS
This is a subheading under jockeys to finely tune your turf handicapping. You could
obviously do this over the dirt and I’m sure many good handicappers already do, or subscribe to a service that specializes in these raw statistics.
Jockey/Trainer stats have been around since
horseracing began, but they only came into vogue during the 90’s.
What do raw jockey/trainer turf statistics tell us?
Everything!
Statistics tell us who can, but even more importantly who can’t!
Good trainer/jockey or jockey/trainer combos (whichever you prefer) are evident on every circuit, but few handicappers fail to use only
turf stats in turf races. Most players mistakenly apply overall meet-to-date statistics interchangeably between surfaces, even though these stats include both the dirt and the turf!
In
other words, “Joe Trainer and Joe Jockey” have been together for 36 starts and have won 14 times for a “combo” win percentage of 38.9%.
But exactly on which surface did those 14 jockey/trainer wins actually occur?
Was it 14 dirt wins and no turf wins?
Was it 13 turf wins and only 1 dirt win?
Or, was it 7 dirt wins and 7 turf wins signaling the surface was of no consequence?
Applying overall meet-to-date stats (dirt and turf together) to either surface is a big-time NO-NO!
The
surfaces are not the same. The winning trainers are usually quite different, as are the winning jockeys. But winning jockey/trainer turf combos are always different.
That said, if you are
studious and keep winning jockey/trainer turf stats or obtain them from a legitimate service or a friend or whatever, you just added a HUGE bullet to your winning turf arsenal.
Once you have these raw
turf stats, you’ll also have winning trainer/jockey turf combos that are sometimes quite shocking the first time that you actually view them. You’ll begin to see exactly what I’ve been talking about.
Some jockey/trainer combos only work over the dirt and NOT over the turf-----or vice-versa!
When I first compiled stats like these in the 70’s, I couldn’t believe differences that were quite visible
with cold stats in front of me. I never really thought the disparities were that great or less or whatever!
Bottom line here is that I just didn’t know---period!
I do now and so should you.
Is it more work?
Of course it is, and even if the stats are literally handed to you by a reliable service---you still gotta read ‘em! I
strongly suggest that you take the time or find another way to view these jockey/trainer turf stats every time you handicap a turf race.
It is more than worth the effort!
****** A caveat is in order as it is with all good handicapping methodology.
Sooner or later when you begin paying strict attention to every winning jockey/trainer turf combo in every turf racing that
you handicap, once in a while you’ll get slapped right across the face much like the old “Burma shave” TV commercials.
What the hell is this jockey doing on this horse for this trainer?
I’m quite sure you’ve asked yourself this question countless times when handicapping a dirt race.
Well guess what--------it’s even more important on the turf!
Why? Simply
because there are far fewer good turf riders. It really just comes down to raw stats again.
In Southern California, if Chris McCarron suddenly shows up in a turf race on horse for a mediocre or
poor barn when having his choice of more obvious and apparently better mounts in the same race, looooooooooooookkk out!
Suddenly winning jockey/trainer turf stats are of absolutely no consequence!
It surely doesn’t happen all that often, but after being repeatedly “stung” in the past, I finally woke up to
“reality”. His agent most likely knows something that I don’t---and I have nothing but respect for Scotty McClellan. In my book, he’s the smartest agent I’ve ever seen and surely worth every penny to
both Chris McCarron and Alex Solis!
NEXT ----PART 20------TURF EQUIPMENT CHANGES
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