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POLYTRACK USER’S GUIDE (updated 09/25/07) INTRODUCTION The first thing to remember about any polytrack is that it most likely will play entirely different than the dirt track that it just replaced, as well as playing different than other polytracks. There are many different types of polytracks, not to mention the major difference in the excellent Southern California weather, vs. the abundance of moisture outside of Southern California. We can’t see how HollywoodPark’s new polytrack will buck the trend of all the other newly installed polysurfaces. Our educated guess is that the days of favoring front speed at HollywoodPark are long gone, as they will be at Del Mar and Santa Anita once they make the mandated changeover to polytrack. Below are the many topics that will be covered in this new DAILY SCHTW weekly Polytrack Report with full explanations as to how you can get the most out of the information 1---RUNNING PROFILES This is already a standard feature of the DAILY SCHTW itself and has been for the past 15 years. Directly below and taken from the DAILY SCHTW’s user’s guide is a full explanation of running profiles and their significance. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- It is essential to know how each and every racetrack on the Southern California plays year-in and year-out. Santa Anita is notHollywoodPark, which in turn is notDel Mar. Running profiles depict the exact “type” of running style that wins any specific race, at any specific distance, over any specific surface at any one of our 3 specific racetracks. All 3 tracks are uniquely different. The DAILY SCHTW uses 4 very distinct types of running profiles: 1—WTW (wire-to-wire)—includes the pacesetter and dueling horses within ½ length of each other at the 2nd running call. 2—S/P (stalker/presser)—any winner that was from ¾ to 2½ lengths behind the leader at the 2nd running call. 3—M (middie)—Any winner that was 2¾ to 6 lengths behind the leader at the 2nd running call. 4—C (closer)—Any winner that was over 6 lengths behind the leader at the 2nd running call. We’ll use the completed running profiles from the 1999 Del Mar meet for instructional purposes. 1999 DEL MAR RUNNING PROFILES 7/22/99 THRU 9/8/99 (Completed meet) DIRT5 5.5 6 6.5 7 8 8.5 9 10 11 12 (furlongs) WTW 4 29 42 27 9 26 8 2 1 - - S/P - 16 20 11 3 9 11 1 - - - M - 2 6 5 5 10 4 1 - - - C 1 3 8 4 6 - - - - - - 5 50 76 47 23 45 23 4 1 - - (274 TOTALDIRT WINNERS ----7/22/99 THRU9/8/99) TURF8 8.5 9 9.5 10 11 12 14 (furlongs) WTW 15 10 2 - - 5 - - S/P 10 4 7 - - 1 - - M 9 9 3 - - 3 - - C 3 3 2 - - 3 - - 37 26 14 - - 12 - - (89 TOTAL TURF WINNERS ----- 7/22/99 THRU 9/8/99 COMPLETED 1999 Del Mar MEET274 DIRT + 89 TURF = 363 TOTAL WINNERS (42 RACE DAYS) Closers are at a distinct disadvantage at most tracks, but look at the dirt routes at the 1999 Del Mar meet! Not a single dirt route winner was further back than 6 lengths at the 2nd running call at all route distances!!! That’s a very powerful running bias any way that you look at it, especially considering that horses won at every sprint distance with a (C) closer’s profile. If you take time to study all running profiles for any specific meet including the one you’re playing, you’ll discover which horses to favor on any given afternoon at any given distance over either surface. This is the appeal of keeping accurate running profiles that are updated weekly. If you were betting Del Mar during the 1999 meet and had knowledge of the painfully obvious anti-closer’s route bias in all of 73 races run around 2 turns, you had an enormous edge over your betting competition. Take a gander at the 5½ furlong distance. Only 3 (C) closers out of 50 or 6% were able to be further back than 6 lengths at the 2nd running call and still win. Quite obviously the entire 1999 Del Mar meet was very kind to speed. As you begin your handicapping, take a hard look at the most recently updated running profiles enclosed with each and every issue. This should give you a good feel for how the track has been playing since the meet began, and barring any changes, how it should continue to play in the near future This is not to say that only any given day a track’s standard running profiles can’t or won’t change. I’ve seen speed (WTW + S/P) tracks go to closer’s tracks overnight due to any number of factors to include weather, or merely normal day-to-day track maintenance. Aberrations are usually just that-----aberrations and not the norm. Most often, a track will exhibit very specific preferences for certain running profiles at certain distances. Look at the 6 furlong distance at Del Mar 1999. 42 of 76 total winners were WTW “types.” Said another way, 55.3% of all 6 furlong winners were pacesetters. Couple that with the stalker/presser profile (S/P) and 20 wins from 76 starts or 26% and clearly you had speed paradise in every sense of the word with 62 of 76 winners (or 81.6%) either setting the pace or within 2½ lengths of the leader. If there was ever a time to pay strict attention the running profiles is when you are dealing with a brand new surface---especially polytrack! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2---RUNNING BIASES This section will be a brand new feature not covered in the DAILY SCHTW itself although it is often used in our DAILY SCHTW FULL CARD ANALYSIS. This section will concern itself with exactly what part of the track is producing the winners each racing day. There are 3 running biases that will be covered. 1---INSIDE---If winners are coming from the 1 or 2 path, this will be considered as an inside running bias. 2---MIDDLE---If winners are coming from the 3, 4, or 5 path, this will be considered as a middle running bias. 3---OUTSIDE---If winners are coming from the 6 path outwards, this will be considered as an outside running bias. So what’s the significance of a polytrack running bias? Well, if the majority of winners are coming from the inside part of the track, you would be hard pressed to cash a ticket with a runner you thought would be running in the middle or far outside part of the surface in the upcoming race. 3---POST POSITION WINS BY SPECIFIC DISTANCE The track program always offers its purchasers a number and percentage breakdown of what post positions are winning going short and long, but it fails to tell you exactly what specific distances are producing the actual winners. For example, the 1 hole might be producing 14% of the sprint winners from 100 starts. At HollywoodPark, there are 7 sprint distances of 4.5, 5, 5.5, 6, 6.5, 7 and 7.5 furlongs. Those 14 winners from the 1 hole might be evenly spread out, so that there were 2 winners from the 1 hole at each of the 7 sprint distances. But more likely, the 14 winners did not equally come from each of the 7 sprint distances. Those 14 winners from the 1 hole might have all come from the 4.5, 5, 5.5 and 6 furlong distances and the 6.5, 7, and 7.5 furlong distances could have produced no winners! Needless to mention, we feel this is incredibly important as should you! In our above example, if you like a horse breaking from the 1 hole going 7 furlongs, you might as well rip up your ticket the minute you buy it! 4---TRACK-SPECIFIC BREEDING (including win percentages) The polytrack report will include new parameters never before included in our reporting of track-specific breeding. We actually started this report when the newly installed Hollywood turf course came into play in April of 2006. In addition to merely offering the number of winners for the sire, grandsire and damsire, we will now offer wins by actual race distance and actual win percentage based on number of actual starts. This incredible upgrade in our track-specific breeding reporting for polytrack surfaces will now leave no stone unturned! You will now know what sires win, whattheir win % actually isbased on number of starts and by actual race distance. It simply can’t get any better than that! 5---WINNING PATTERNS This will include things like moving from old dirt surfaces to new polysurfaces and moving from turf surfaces to the new polysurfaces. It will also include the importance or lack of same for horses stabled at HollywoodPark and training over the actual polytrack surface, vs. those shipping in from any other Southern California track or any shippers from out of state. 6---WINNING TRAINERS/JOCKEY COMBINATIONS This is rather self-explanatory. This new polysurface is very likely to produce different winning trainer/jockey combos, as every past winning trainer/jockey is a huge question mark until you have the facts. Just because a certain trainer/jockey combo in the past has produced a high percentage of winners on the old dirt or over the turf, there is absolutelyno guarantee that the same winning combo can reproduce on the new polysurface. 7---MISCELLANEOUS Polytrack information that doesn’t neatly fit into any of the above categories will be found here. This will include all on-track personal observations, how rain affects the new polytrack surface, nuances, and anything else that we can come up. By enhancing the new polytrack report to the “max”, we will be offering you the best polytrack information that money can buy at any price, anywhere--------period! e-mail me for Pricing Information joetakach@worldnet.att.net
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