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Filters
By Ed Bain
From the June 2001 issue:
When I first tracked and then wagered on statistics, I found myself betting on stats the same way I wagered on speed.
Handicap the speed, form an opinion, bet the race.
With statistics I went through the same process. Look up the stat, form an opinion, bet the largest percentage. I quickly learned, this is a losing approach. I needed a filter to eliminate races. I decided that the best filter was a two-element approach.
First, a set number of wins and second a fixed percentage.
I settled on 4 wins or more, plus a 30 percent win rate or higher. I labeled this the 4 + 30 for easy identification. I then ignored all other statistics in the race. By only betting the 4 + 30, it allowed me to record a hit rate and an average win mutuel on this stat.
With “Layoffs” and “Claims” I have always tried to find an automatic play. I have been able to do this with trainer stats that are individual and specific but not as a fixed play or a whole category
that could be activated and bet on without thought or deliberation and then show a profit, or an ROI.
As I wagered on these statistics, I became aware of the need to apply more filters. With the 4 + 30
on five main tracks, the play produced a 24 percent-hit rate and an $8.50 average win mutuel on 11 plays per day. I knew if I could make four bets, get one win that I could make a living. It would be an
appurtenance, or something added to, an already important thing, the statistic. My only goal was to bet on racing and produce an income.
Cutting seven plays out of the eleven was initially very tough because I may have had good reason to pass but that does not mean they won’t win, and they do. I also had more to
choose on Saturday and Sunday than on Wednesday and Thursday. And I did not have a ready-made list of reasons to eliminate potential bets. I recognized the factors that are paramount to the statistic and
to my approach and also to handle the personal stress. Making money incorporates self control, applying rules and setting an orderly approach to the eliminations and then accept the results.
I knew I had to
learn and find the filters as I continued wagering. I am a win bettor and win betting is not a big score type of play. Betting like this, I will never have a $25,000 day.
This approach is a grind em out, day to day way of producing a living. Not a one hit, get rich style of betting.
This method of filtering down to four win bets a day may seem easy to some and hard to
others.
Betting this way requires hard core discipline. But there is money to be made over any length of time looking for four good bets from eleven. I try to hit two, I average about one and a quarter a day. There is churn with this style of betting. You win a little, you lose a little, but there are generally no long run outs of losing bets. The goal is to average over one hit a day and collect on the average payouts of the stats which is $8.50.
Using filters to eliminate statistics can help you reach these types of goals but personal discipline makes money. It’s the discipline that is the key to the filters.
This is a list of what I use to filter plays;
Fast Tracks Only
Tomlinson Turf numbers, 320 & Up
Post Position (ex: post position 10 & out at tracks like Gulfstream.)
Horses overall poor race record.
Horses poor track record.
Horses poor distance record.
Morning line to win percentage to win payout. (ex: High win payout, low morning line.)
Repeaters
Underlaid win percentage to morning line.
0 for’s in the subsets.
Poor subset records.
Negative ROI. (ex: low morning line, low win payout, negative ROI.)
Bet “Layoffs” and “Claims” only in Claiming, Allowance, or Stakes. Do not bet in MSW or Maiden Claim.
Bet Debut stats only in MSW and Maiden Claims.
Pedigree, use Mike Helm’s Class Ratings.
Jockey, poor overall race record.
These eliminations are the center of my
style of play.
Fortunately handicapping has nothing to do with physical talent. It’s a mental sport. It’s about betting and making a living. And it’s about reaching the potential of the statistic by using filters but potential is always about head and heart and these are the same places discipline resides.
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