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Jerry Hollendorfer
By Ed Bain
From the April 2001 issue:
The dominate trainer in Northern California is Jerry Hollendorfer.
He also has the largest stable. For the last 365 days, Hollendorfer had 901 starts, 224 wins, a 25 percent win rate, 365 W/P (win/place) hits, for a 40 percent place rate and 484 ITM (In The Money) hits for a 53 percent show rate.
Handicappers across the country know he is the best trainer at Golden Gate Fields and they complain about the low odds you get on his runners because of the small four, five, and six horse fields. This problem of small fields is an issue with speed players. For a trainer player, it is not. Small fields are easy to evaluate when wagering with statistics and I find many bets are easy to place on these because they are overlaid to the trainer’s win rate percentage. Or easy to pass because the trainer stat is also the fastest horse and then over bet, making it an underlay.
Most handicappers believe Hollendorfer is always over bet and if his odds are double-digit, they believe he is not ready to win. So they don’t place the bet. Or they believe his horse is not fast enough in those small fields and they pass the bet. Because speed cannot predict improvement, only how fast he ran his last race. However a “Layoff” or “Claim” stat can predict improvement, at long odds, in small fields.
For March at Golden Gate there were 58, 4 + 30 stats with 12 wins, a 21 percent hit rate. Jerry Hollendorfer had 28 of those 4 + 30 stats, or almost half. Jerry won with 10, a 35 percent win rate. All other trainers 4 + 30 statistics were a combined 2 for 30 or 6 percent. For March it was easy to only evaluate Hollendorfer’s runners. He is on my personal trainer list to bet when the statistic is an overlay and to pass when the stat says he is an underlay.
Hollendorfer qualified for a bet with six different “Layoff” or “Claim” categories in the month of March with the 4 + 30. 1st after a Layoff Route - 4th after a Layoff Sprint - 4th after a Layoff Route - 1st after a Claim Sprint - 1st after a Claim Route, and 2nd after a Claim Sprint. He produced wins in all six categories. He had three races he ran an entry in and won with one. He went head to head with three other trainer’s 4 + 30 stat and he hit with one of those.
From Hollendorfer’s 28, 4 + 30 stats, 18 were underlaid to his hit rate. He won with 6 of those, a 33 percent strike rate with an average mutuel of $3.93. A 33 percent hit rate means his runners had to have odds no lower than 2/1 to place a bet and be called an overlay. His actual payout is 4/5 which is the reason not to make the bet because he is an underlay.
On the flip side, Hollendorfer had ten horses for the month that were overlaid. He won with four, a 40 percent win rate. The four had an average win mutuel of $18.60. His payouts were $6 - $10.60 - $20.60 - and $37.20 which was the largest of the four win mutuels. He hit this in a five horse field.
I bet on all ten of Jerry Hollendorfer’s overlays in March and hit the four winners. With his stats I dealt with what was known. His hit rate on his 4 + 30's. I wanted a good outcome but first I had to make good decisions and then consistent decisions. I had to believe in the percentages to evaluate an underlay from an overlay to help in placing or passing the bet. This method of wagering on percentages has another benefit, self-control. This provides balance and stability. Self control is the same as self discipline. The power of controlling ones actions, impulses, or emotions.
Hollendorfer’s percentages on his 4 + 30 “Layoffs” and “Claims” tells us what the odds mean which is the probability of losing to the probability of success. With Hollendorfer’s stats, I don’t count on luck. But by using them, I have increased my chances to get lucky as well as profitable. If you want to find an outlaw, call an outlaw. If you want to find a “Dunkin Donuts,” call a cop. If you want to find an overlay, call on Jerry Hollendorfer’s 4 + 30.
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