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Ron McAnally
By Ed Bain
From the November 1999 issue:
One of the exciting features in “statistics and trainers” is the idea that uncertainty can be measured. Uncertainty means unknown probabilities. We can say that a layoff is uncertain when our information is correct and the layoff fails to win. Or we can determine the probability that a layoff will be attempted by the trainer under circumstances where we know nothing about it except that it has occurred a certain number of times and won, and has occurred a certain number of times and has lost. In other words produced a statistic and mutuel payout. This is the solid foundation for all my reasoning concerning past facts on layoff trainers. For me it is not about how fast a horse is, it’s about if he wins or if he loses and what his payout is. Layoffs give me a starting point to make the count to acquire statistics on trainers returning horses from a layoff. The word statistic is derived from the analysis of quantitative fact. I use facts to balance out the unknown with the mutuel payout. In other words, I don’t know when the trainer will produce a win off the layoff. Only that he has 32 wins on 122 tries, a 26% win rate and his win mutuel is $14.30. So to be profitable I have to make all 122 win bets.
I track the first, second, third and fourth race after a layoff separated by sprint and route. 7½ furlongs and over is a route. From January 1, 1998, through October 15, 1999, Ron McAnally has returned 131 horses from the route layoff. He won with 26. These are his statistics for four consecutive races after a layoff route:
L1-R 131-26 20%
L2-R 84 -18 21%
L3-R 53 - 8 15%
LR-4 32 -13 40%
By combining his four consecutive starts we can see if McAnally can be wagered on profitably.
Starts: 300
Wins: 65 21%
Place: 114 38%
Show: 156 52%
Out: 144
Win $ Gross $773.20
Place $ Gross $559.30
Show $ Gross $529.20
Win Mutuel $ 11.89
Place Mutuel $ 4.90
Show Mutuel $ 3.39
Ron McAnally can be bet to win. Place $2 to win on all 300 starts and he wins with 65, a 21% win rate, and an average mutuel of $11.89. He produces a positive ROI (Return On Investment) of $2.57 for each of the 300 win bets. For the place he loses .13 per bet and for show he loses .23 per bet. McAnally is great for the win bet, however as an everyday player there are two problems with betting on Ron McAnally’s layoff routes with a 21%-hit rate. The first is you have to have iron discipline to place 235 losing bets even though you will make money over the long term betting all 300. The second is the stress and the self-punishment of placing 235 losing bets. So I track additional statistics from the layoff statistic. The reason is in real life wagering, relevant information is essential. The additional statistics that I track are the owner, the jockey, the distance, turf, blinkers, odds, lasix, workouts, and repeaters. For Ron McAnally the stand out information is lasix. This is a medication the vet administers to horses that bleed, which most horses do. There is some controversy whether lasix is a performance enhancer. I will state that it is. However I treat lasix as another piece of equipment and track lasix as I would any of the above trainer moves. Lasix is a legal drug. At every track and OTB, when some horse wins with first lasix, there is always a handicapper walking around repeating “First time juice, first time juice.” Inferring he lost because an illegal drug was given to the horse that won. The problem with lasix is once the horse has bled and been treated with lasix, they must race with it the rest of their career. Lasix does give a statistician an opportunity to find out how a trainer performs when the horse receives this medication first, second, third and fourth time. After the first time on lasix, the amount may be adjusted by the vet to make the medication more effective.
This information makes me more effective as a horseplayer. With first, second, third and fourth time lasix this is what McAnally’s statistics look like:
Starts: 122
Wins: 32 26%
Place: 56 45%
Show: 71 60%
Out: 51
Win $ Gross $457.60
Place $ Gross $312.22
Show $ Gross $242.40
Win Mutuel $ 14.30
Place Mutuel $ 5.48
Show Mutuel $ 3.41
McAnally had 122 starts with 32 wins, a 26% win rate and a $14.30 win mutuel. McAnally shows a profitable ROI on win bets. Place a bet on all 122 lasix 1 - 4 horses and you receive $3.60 per bet. For place, $2.46 and for show, break even at $1.99. Bet across the board 122 times six, you invest $732 and you get back $1,012.20. An ROI of $2.78 on the 366 across the board bets. Placing bets on all of Ron McAnally’s 1 - 4 lasix horses means I have reduced the amount of bets, increased the hit rate, and produced a higher win mutuel and ROI. I have found a positive ROI on win, place, show, and across the board bets.
With Ron McAnally’s combination of lay 1 - 4 and lasix 1 - 4 uncertainties can be up graded by statistics so we can assume that the past is a reliable guide to the future.
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