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Elliott Walden
By Ed Bain
From the December 1999 issue:
For handicappers to show a profit, they must break free of the flawed irrationality of the crowd’s effect on the odds board. As people struggle with new information they tend to reject it in favor of beliefs they already hold. They identify with celebrity sources or the expert opinion of others. By understanding how attitudes are formed, we can avoid the pit falls of following the celebrity or expert handicapper. When people are in a situation where their knowledge or experience is limited (like wagering on horses), they will seek guidance in order to form an opinion they believe has a sound basis. Most people will search for knowledge in three ways.
By looking for more information.
By adopting the knowledge of the experts.
By associating with handicappers with beliefs that are consistent with their own.
Of the three, looking for more information is the best way to acquire knowledge. The reason is this type of person seeks to simplify the problem of understanding how to win at betting on the horses and the less the handicapper knows the stronger the confirmation they need before they’ll risk their money. The many people who follow number two are followers and make bets on the favorite based on expert opinion. The third types are handicappers who have read the same authors or purchased the same computer program and follow that computer program outline or authors directions. Since it fits in neatly with their beliefs and handicapping knowledge, they all buy into the same handicapping dogma.
I track the first, second, third and fourth race after a layoff separated by sprint and route. 7 ½ furlongs and above is a route. Since January 1, 1998 through November 22, 1999 Elliott Walden has returned from the layoff 96 runners and won with 32. These are Walden’s statistics:
L1-R 96-32= 33%
L2-R 92-23= 25%
L3-R 63-16= 25%
L4-R 43-10= 23%
By combining his four consecutive starts we can see if Elliott Walden can be wagered on profitably.
Starts: 294
Wins: 81 28%
Place: 123 42%
Show: 165 56%
Out: 129
Win $ Gross: $612.30
Place $ Gross: $551.90
Show $ Gross: $507.00
Win Mutuel: $ 7.56
Place Mutuel: $ 4.48
Show Mutuel: $ 3.07
Elliott Walden can be bet profitably on to win. Place $2 to win on all 294 layoff runners and get back $2.08 per bet. He shows a .12 loss for place and a .27 loss for every $2 show bet.
Within the layoff statistic I record other factors: the owner, the jockey, the distance, turf, blinkers, odds, lasix, workouts and repeaters. The reason I track this other information is to determine whether a statistic is aided by another statistic. As an example, Elliott Walden brought back from the layoff 16 horses that had won and then were laid off. He won with three. However, Elliott is not a repeat trainer. On his first, second, third and fourth race in a route he had 72 potential repeaters. He won with 15. These are his statistics:
Starts: 72
Wins: 15 21%
Place 30 41%
Show: 44 61%
Out: 28
Win $ Gross: $106.60
Place $ Gross: $146.00
Show $ Gross: $147.80
Win Mutuel: $ 7.10
Place Mutuel: $ 4.86
Show Mutuel: $ 3.36
Walden shows a flat bet loss of .52 cents on the win bet for repeaters and a slight profit of
$2.02 for place and $2.05 for show. I would pass any of Walden’s repeaters.
At specific distances Elliott Walden can be wagered on at one mile, a mile and 1/16 and a mile and 1/8 on turf or on dirt. For these three distances he showed 234 races with 74 wins. These are his statistics for those three distances:
Starts: 234
Wins: 74 32%
Place: 104 44%
Show: 137 58%
Out: 97
Win $ Gross: $564.70
Place $ Gross: $461.50
Show $ Gross: $452.90
Win Mutuel: $ 7.63
Place Mutuel: $ 4.43
Show Mutuel: $ 3.30
Walden shows a profitable ROI for these distances of $2.41 for the win. Almost a break- even place bet, $1.98 and a slight loss for show at $1.94. Elliott should be played to win. Of the remaining distances, 7 ½ furlongs, a mile and 70 yards, and all races above a mile and 3/16, Walden had 7 wins, on 60 tries, an 11% win rate. All these distances on Walden’s lay one, two, three, and four should be passed.
Many horseplayers seek expert opinion then bet based on someone else’s knowledge. The best way to wager on the horses is not to be swayed inordinately by expert opinion or by the musings of celebrity sources or of the opinions of others. It is the search for understandable information that can be applied in a sensible manner that gets us to be experts in our own right.
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