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Recreational or Pro
By Ed Bain
From the December 2000 issue:
I had this question asked: “Is it any different for the recreational player than it is for the professional player?” or “Is it
simply: when the odds are right, and the statistic is right and the subsets are right . . ., it’s a play?”
My answer is, it is the same. A recreational player can use the same advantages in statistics that a pro player like me uses. A recreational player can be a spot player and this is the way I wager, as a spot player.
I think of my style of playing on statistics as a spot player.
I prefer to cherry pick the best statistics based on my experience wagering on a trainer’s percentages. I know that each circuit has a handful of successful trainer moves. Because of this I have centered up and bet the same group of trainers over and over again.
The recreational player can use the same approach I use.
On an average day I place four win bets. Two of those bets are automatic wagers because of their high hit rates and large ROI’s (Return On Investment). When these automatics present themselves I bet them regardless of their odds because of their hit rate and ROI. I keep this trainer list small but very profitable. It keeps me focused on how to make money betting on the horses for a living. A recreational player has the same advantage if he is willing to play this way.
The trainers I bet over and over are from the original five circuits I tracked by hand.
If you are a recreational player with a phone or and offshore account, the same opportunity is there for the recreational player as well as any pro player. By making a small but an effective list of the high percentage and high ROI trainer moves, and you keep this list around twenty or under, you can show an immediate profit by betting on these trainer moves when they present themselves. By keeping it small, you may not have a bet every day. Some weeks you may only call in and place one or two bets because of the tracks now running on your circuit. As an example, in New York Aqueduct is open. Many of the big trainers move to Gulfstream in Florida for the winter. So Aqueduct will produce fewer bets for New York handicappers.
In New York I have one trainer I wait for, then bet when his big stat arrives. A second after a claim, route. This trainer, Richard Dutrow, Jr. is an automatic when his claim 2 route is there to
bet. Dutrow does not do a lot of claiming but when he does, he has a large percentage for that move and is very profitable and an automatic bet.
In Maryland, Howard Wolfendale is on my short list. He
qualifies on first after a claim in a route. I bet his stat even if his odds are 3/5 because he is profitable long term on an ROI basis. I don’t get many plays from Wolfendale. Even though he has a
high hit rate, it does not mean he will win today on his claim one route. Wolfendale has lost his last five, 1st after a claim - route.
Even with his loses I will bet every one of his claim one routes in the future.
If you keep the list small, a recreational player will have the same opportunity to be profitable. By keeping the list
small with high percentage trainers, you will reduce the probability of a long run out of losers.
In Kentucky, Frank Brothers 1st after a layoff in a sprint, is an automatic.
Most handicappers believe Brother’s is a route trainer but his lay one sprint statistic is the only time to put money on his runners. Trainers like Brothers give their horses time off when there is nothing wrong with the horse. Consequently they have the horse in racing shape first after the layoff in a sprint. And this is the time a recreational player or a pro-player should make the bet.
Peter Walder races in Florida and New Jersey. Walder is a 1st after a layoff in a sprint. He is a small start trainer but a very effective sprint layoff trainer.
Earlier in the summer Walder had three sprint layoff horses win on the same day. He will show up at Gulfstream with a handful of sprint layoff horses and all will be automatic bets for me. And they also should be for the recreational player.
Neil Drysdale is a high profile trainer.
Drysdale is a 1st after a layoff sprint automatic. Although he is great off the route layoff, his sprint statistics and ROI are better than his routes. This southern California trainer has been very profitable off the sprint layoff for many years. The day after Christmas, Santa Anita opens for their winter meet. Drysdale is most effective on the 6 ½ furlong down the hill turf sprints. This is also the most exciting race in all of racing. Drysdale points many of his sprinters for the winter meet in the downhill sprint turf race. If you’re a pro-player or a recreational player, you should be pointing for Drysdale’s 1st after a layoff turf sprints at Santa Anita this winter.
If you place bets on these statistics, you can be profitable immediately.
There is one trainer who in my opinion is better than the rest. His style is to be cautious, but to always give his horses a freshening. He also is one of the largest stables in the country and wins everywhere. He has a division racing in Kentucky and you can bet his assistant there as also. This trainer is Bill Mott. He wins with just about all of his first, second, third, and fourth after a layoff routes at every track. I consider him my designated hitter because of volume. When his layoff horses show up at any track, I ask only that his horses has to be on the turf and for Mott’s assistant in Kentucky, he has to have Pat Day in the irons. I pass his layoff runners if one of those two items is missing.
A recreational player, once he understands information like “Layoffs” and “Claims” has the same opportunity to bet and win as any pro-player. These five trainers, Dutrow, Wolfendale, Walder, Drysdale,
and Mott are part of my automatic list. I never pass these five when their specialty moves line up.
I place the bet. A recreational player can use the same approach. It will require a small but an effective list then the discipline to bet on that trainer move only. Along with patience to wait until one of those trainer moves lines up.
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