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SUCKER BETS---(part 15) 25---TURF HORSE SWITCHES TO DIRT FOR NO REASON I come across this “sucker bet” every week. A confirmed turf horse suddenly pops up in the past performances in a dirt race. And by “confirmed”, I mean a horse that has never run on the dirt or has run very infrequently on the dirt while going winless. Unless you’re a “sucker”, you toss him right out without even considering him in the winner’s circle. Why? Unless you’ve been living under a rock your entire horseplaying career, by now you’ve come to the realization that like everyone else, trainers are “creatures of habit”. In other words, the only time that they stray from their modus operandi is when their current methodology for a specific runner is not working. Thus the confirmed grass runner to dirt move. If you play the major Southern California circuit it’s no secret that Neil Drysdale and Bobby Frankel are strongly turf oriented. They have very few dirt horses in comparison to the preponderance of grass runners. This is surely not to say that they don’t win on the dirt, they do. But they win on the dirt with their “dirt” horses, not their grass runners. Whenever either of these Hall of Fame trainers takes one of their “confirmed” turf runners and puts them on the dirt, an alarm goes off in my head and it’s a loud one. I can’t wait to see the horse in the paddock because I’m likely to see a new problem. It could be any number of things to include an extension problem, weight loss, first wraps with an enlarged ankle, negative shoeing, negative equipment changes etc., but I know there’s a problem somewhere. The general public seems to ignore this surface change much like they fail to see the difference between a wet and dry track. Astute handicappers exploit situations like this every day and are never “suckered” as is Joe Sixpack. They wait like vultures for situations like this. And they hope that the confirmed grass runner moving to the dirt is a “good” turf horse from a “good” barn with a “good” turf record. They begin to salivate if the horse has never raced on the dirt or has done so very infrequently with no wins. They know that this horse is going to take serious money at the mutuel windows. And they know that if they like a “dirt” horse in this upcoming “dirt” race, they’re about to get a juicy overlay. For them, this “sucker bet” is actually a “win-win” situation! They know that an infinitely small percentage of confirmed grass horses can seamlessly change surfaces to the dirt. And while there are horses who can win on any surface with any switch from dirt to turf or vice versa, we’re not talking about those wonder horses. We only talking about “confirmed” turf horses suddenly moving to the dirt for no apparent reason. There is a reason, but it ain’t a good one. Here’s some food for thought. Have you ever noticed how fast Frankel and Drysdale scratch their turf horses when the races are taken off the grass and run on the main course? They are not about to run their turf stock over the dirt and risk an unnecessary breakdown. With over 40 years of daily on track attendance, I can assure you that I’ve seen countless more dirt horses break down and get vanned off in the post race than grass runners-----and I do mean countless! Turf horses have a longer shelf life and suffer far less injuries than their dirt counterparts who are forced to race on hard “drag strips”. The dirt runners take intense pounding on their front legs over the non-forgiving man made dirt courses, while the turf horses run over a natural grass course that is far less punishing. It’s a no-brainer! In Southern California other than Bobby Frankel and Neil Drysdale, there are many good turf trainers. All these competent horsemen share a common thread. They protect their confirmed grass runners and never invite trouble by running them over the dirt. And when they do, something is rotten in Denmark. If Southern California isn’t your circuit, I can personally assure you that it is no different on the East coast. Before moving to California in the early 90’s, I played every major racetrack from New York to Florida for close to 30 years. Good turf trainers always protect their grass runners. So when you see a good turf trainer make a negative move with one of his grass horses by running him over the dirt, don’t be “suckered”! PART 16----MORE “SUCKER” BETS
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