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SUCKER BETS---(part 14) 24---BETTING A HORSE WITHOUT WATCHING THE POST PARADE Here’s one of the easiest “sucker bets” to overcome and it will cost you nothing but your attention span whether on track or at a simulcast facility. In order to avoid this “sucker bet” you must believe that horses are warm-blooded athletes rather than lifeless machines and you have to get your face out of the past performances long enough to view your potential wager. One of the greatest things about satellite wagering is that handicappers get at least a “5 second glimpse” of each runner in the post parade before every race. Most times, that’s all that is needed for “physicality” handicappers. They can see how a horse is walking, his color, his muscling, his energy level, his ears, his tail, and negative equipment if any. And while recognition of those 7 factors won’t necessarily put them on a winner, it will save these “physicality” handicappers countless “bad bets” year in and year out. And again, this “proprietary information” is totally free! For well over 20 years, I’ve written volumes on the topic as well offering visual instruction in my 90 minute “Beat the Beam” video and posting innumerable articles at www.joe-takach.com . To this very day, I continue to get emails from “physicality converts” who tell me of their initial skepticism about the whole “physicality” thing. But after getting a “working knowledge” of “physicality handicapping” just as they once did with the past performances, they began to view horses as athletes rather than lifeless machines. For many, their entire handicapping methodology changed forever. They wouldn’t think about betting their “paper” selections without first checking everyone’s race day “physicality”. In no particular order here’s what they look for in those brief 5 second glimpses to either confirm their “paper” selections, or to “save” them a wasted wager by passing bad looking horses. 1---COLOR A horse’s color is an overall barometer of his health. In a nutshell it comes down to this. Horses have either good color or bad color. There is no in between. If a horse’s color is rich and deep and reflects sunlight, he’s healthy. If his color is dull or muted and absorbs sunlight with little or no reflection, he’s either not feeling his best or his diet is lacking in nutritional make up. With well over 40 years in the paddock, I can assure you that horses with good color win countless more races than those without good color. 2---ENERGY LEVELS I don’t think it’s much of a stretch to say that high energy levels are more conducive to winning than low energy levels. Just look at yourself. When you got up this morning, did you feel exactly the same way you felt the day before? The week before? The month before? Most likely not, unless you’re a lifeless machine. And were not discussing lifeless machines, were discussing warm-blooded 4 legged athletes. Changes in energy levels from race to race can be subtle or dramatic depending on the specific horse in question. Few horses have the same “high energy level” from race to race, but it is not at all uncommon to see losing horses with the same “low energy level”. 3---MUSCLING Here’s an ingredient that is used in every major sport to include horse racing. Heavily muscled horses end up in the winner’s circle far more often than their anorexic counterparts. Sure, thin and ribby horses win every now and then. But when they do, they usually beat horses with major physical problems such as poor extension (walking short). If you can count a horse’s ribs or the point of their hip is prominent, they need a few good meals not another race. 4---POOR EXTENSION How a horse walks is a strong indicator of how he’s about to run. Those runners with normal extension obviously win more races than those that are walking short. While spotting “shortsteppers” via a satellite monitor is not as easy as doing so in the paddock where you have plenty of time to decide, like anything else in life it can be mastered with time, practice and patience. 5---EAR POSITION Pricked ears are the only acceptable ear position. They signify a positive mental attitude for the upcoming race and complement the overall deportment of a “ready horse”. The ear positions to avoid are pinned, flickering and flopped over. All signify negativity. 6---TAILS Tails are easy to see and easy to interpret because there are only 3 positions of real consequence. If a horse is interested in running, his tail will be slightly raised and completely off his rump. If his tail is flat against his rump, he’s likely lacking energy as well as an interest in the upcoming race. If his tail is going in a constant east-west motion, he’s upset about something---most likely the upcoming race! 7---NEGATIVE EQUIPMENT Satellite “physicality” handicappers can spot negative equipment in a heartbeat with the exception of new barshoes or newly patched quarter cracks. They look for horses adorned with “blowouts’ or “stops”, indicating that they are hitting themselves. They look for “martingales” denoting that a horse’s saddle has a tendency to slip backwards when racing. They look for “run-out bits” that signal a horse’s inability to run in a straight line. And they look for front wraps being added for the first time or re-added, implying ankle or tendon problems. Big time “no-nos” all! Don’t “sucker” yourself at the mutuel windows. At least “look at” your potential wager before you put down your hard earned cash-------it’s absolutely free! PART 15----MORE “SUCKER” BETS
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