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SUCKER BETS---(part 11) 20---WON LAST OUT BREAKING FROM THE FAR OUTSIDE Assuming that you are a dyed in the wool “weekend warrior” and play most Saturdays, Sundays and holidays, I’m sure you’ve come across this type of winner just about every racing card or every other racing card. Here’s how it sets up. A horse last out won from the 9, 10, 11, or 12 hole for 25K while going long around two turns, put up a decent “number” and returns this afternoon taking a modest 1 step jump in class to 32K. You might have even bet him the day he won for 25K and if you did, you certainly remember him! This afternoon he breaks from the 1, 2 or 3 hole and doesn’t have to worry about being unnecessarily compromised by a wide trip. He faces nobody “special” in this 32K claimer, his regular rider is aboard, and he won’t be running against the bias. Everybody reading today’s past performances needs to know more about this horse. Not because he broke from the far outside, but rather because he was a last out winner and last out winners always attract much more attention than do last out losers. He’s usually an automatic “contender” to most punters and to some, he’s an automatic bet. He might be a bet, but he’s a “sucker bet”! Why? It’s extremely tough to win from the far outside regardless of class, distance, or surface. Unless today’s race is being run over a surface that favors dead closers, any far outside horse has to get positive running position early on in the race in order to visit the winner’s circle. If he’s on the far outside, he must use up a lot of energy at the start of the race. Remember that some horses inside of him if not most, are also trying to get good running position. Even if he is the superior horse “on paper”, he’ll have to battle early on for his own positive running position. Most likely, he’ll be a bit wide into the first turn. He’ll burn more energy for that good running position than will his inside competition------and he only has so much total energy in his tank. This is why you see so many outside posted runners fading like cheap wallpaper once they hit the 1/8 pole. They are simply out of gas! While it is easier to win from the outside in sprints due to the long run down the backside before hitting the far turn and the possibility to slightly angle a mount inwards so as not to lost too much ground, outside horses still have to use more energy to get that position than do horses to the inside who also want that same position. Routes can be a different story. Since the outside posted horse only has to negotiate a single turn in a sprint, he only has 1 possibility of being wide. If he’s two turning that possibility doubles! Betting horses on the far outside offers you little more than “downside risk” that can be avoided by simply passing the race. You never have to bet any race where you don’t have it all going your way. There’s another race in 30 minutes! This brings us full circle to our “sucker bet” of “won from the far outside last race” and takes a single jump in class today. Why is he a “sucker bet” today even if breaking from the inside? With over 40 years of daily on track attendance and watching horses unsaddled in the post-race, I can assure you of one thing. Winning horses that come back to the winner’s circle looking “strong” as if they never ran at all, repeat in their next starts far more times than do winners who return “exhausted” gasping for air with their heads low and bobbing. The next time that you are on track for the weekend or better yet 2 or 3 weekends, go down to the unsaddling area after every race and inspect every horse that wins from the 9 hole out and from the 8 hole in. It doesn’t matter what class level you are looking at and it doesn’t matter all that much whether the race itself was a sprint or a 2 turn route. You’re just looking for post-race energy levels. I’d be shocked if you didn’t find that the inside posted winners had far better energy levels in the winner’s circle than did the outside posted winners. Our last out 25K winner from the outside most likely emptied his tank in his winning effort. To expect him to repeat that performance or even better it while stepping up in class to 32K against a field in which all horses last out most likely didn’t empty their tanks is little more than wishful thinking. Keep in mind that it is extremely hard to beat any kind of bias. I’m not knocking the 25K horse’s last winning effort from the outside. The fact that he could beat a negative post position bias makes him “special”. But beating a bias of any kind in a last out draining effort usually throws a horse off for 2 or 3 races until he rebuilds his strength and energy. Don’ be “suckered” into thinking that he’ll repeat this afternoon! He most likely won’t! PART 12----MORE “SUCKER” BETS
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