|
SUCKER BETS---(part 5) 10---BREAKS MAIDEN AND NO WINS FROM NEXT 4 STARTS The horse that personifies this “sucker bet” takes on a few forms and it matters not which one, as the end result is the same. He might be a winning first time starter who then fails to duplicate his winning debut for his next 4 starts or he might be a horse that takes 10 attempts to break his maiden and then goes right back to sleep. Here’s the long and short of it. It doesn’t take “sound” horses 4 races to win again off their maiden victories or any victories for that matter. While a hard and/or all-out winning race can certainly take its toll on any horse with a “bounce” the subsequent outcome in his next start, it shouldn’t take maiden winners 4 or more races to catch their breath and run back to their winning maiden number. The only exception that comes to mind would be horses that are placed absurdly high after their maiden wins. For example, we’ve all seen 50K maiden claiming winners running their next 4 races in other-than-1 allowance company when they should be running in 20K to 25K claiming races. Getting back to our “sucker bet”, they are easy to spot. Just look at the past performances of recent maiden winners and see how long it takes them to win again or at least run back to their winning maiden number. If it’s over 4 races, the trainer has either been running his horse far too high in class or the horse has developed an underlying physical problem that until corrected (if correctable) will stop him from duplicating any past number. When “paper handicapping” any day’s card, I put a line thru these “sucker bets” every time I spot one in the past performances. When visiting the paddock before their race, I see that most have become problematic due to enlarged ankles, adding “stops” or “blowouts”, are walking short or wide, have added barshoes, ¾ shoes, square toes, covered frogs or any other form of negative shoeing etc. I could go on and on. Point is if they can’t win in 4 starts off their maiden tallies when properly placed, they’ve developed some physical negativity preventing them from doing so. If you visit your paddock before their upcoming race or pay strict attention to your satellite monitors, it shouldn’t be all that hard to spot. 11---WAGERING ON “1-FERS” Quite a few of the above “sucker bets” morph into yet another “sucker bet” known as the “1-fer”. You know, “1 fer 10” lifetime all the way up to “1 fer 20” lifetime-----and sometimes even higher. These “sucker bets” often manage to hit the board with some doing so 60% of the time. But for some known or perhaps unknown reason, they can’t seem to put it altogether once again to visit the winner’s circle. Today he might be entered at an all time low in class while showing a strong 2nd in his last out performance and look like the “lock of the century” with his last out “number”, but as if “scripted” before the gates open, he finds yet another way to lose even if he has to invent one. While these “sucker bets” might be useable in exactas, trifectas etc. to put under your top choices if “exotics” are your game, don’t be “suckered” in using them on top! 12---RUNS CAREER RACE LAST OUT This is one of my all time favorite “sucker bets” and it sets up like this. A mediocre horse who at times visits the winner’s circle wins a race in his last outing and while doing so, puts up a “number” good enough to win a Breeder’s Cup race! The “why” of the huge number could come about for any number of reasons to include catching the “golden path” on a severely biased surface, suddenly finding himself the “lone speed” in a field of plodders on a speed favoring course, getting a “dream trip” behind 2 or more dueling frontrunners, or “getting a little help from his friends” before coming over to the paddock to be saddled for his upcoming impressive performance. If you can see the “why” of the suddenly superb performance, the horse is even easier to toss out. But even if you can’t find the reason for the out of place prior performance, the last out “career race” winner is a “sucker bet” in his next outing for a number of reasons. First off, even if the bizarre number he put up last out was somehow legitimate, he’s going to be grossly over bet at the mutuel windows. No “value” should equal “no bet” on your part. Secondly, should you discover the “why” of the impressive performance, his chances of getting it “all his own way” in back-to-back races is almost nil. Most likely he won’t be the “lone speed” next out, or he’ll fail to get that same perfect trip, or he won’t again catch the golden path. And finally even if illegally drugged, the trainer would have to be brain dead to induce yet another Breeder’s Cup race in the horse’s very next outing. That would only bring untold pressure upon him from the state stewards wanting to know just how this horse has improved 5 or more lengths overnight. PART 6----MORE “SUCKER” BETS |