|
SUCKER BETS---(part 28) I’ll conclude our series on “sucker bets”. I just reread the first 27 parts of this series. I’ve had fun writing these installments because I live them every day on track. With any luck, I’ve saved you a couple of “bad bets”. And as I’ve stated countless times in the past, saving you a “bad bet” is the same as you cashing an even-moneyed winner. There isn’t a daily racing card anywhere in America that doesn’t contain tons of “sucker bets” and tons of “suckers” ready to make those “downside” wagers. I’m guilty of “sucker betting” innumerable times over my 45 year betting career and I guarantee you that I’ll be “suckered” in the future. But thankfully I’ve made less of these “sucker bets” as time marched forward over the years and have actually learned how to capitalize on them. Many times these “sucker bets” are grossly over bet, thus leaving the astute player a juicy overlay somewhere in the field. This doesn’t occur in every race, but it usually occurs every single day on every racing card. The trick is to find one of these “sucker races”, identify the “sucker bet”, toss him right out if he’s the chalk, get in the paddock, look for “physically sound” runners, watch the pre-race warm-ups, find the “juicy overlay” that has a better chance of winning than then “sucker bet”, and then decide if he’s worth a bet based on all you know about him. Sometimes they’re worth a wager and sometimes it is just better to pass the race. But at least you’re not getting “suckered” on the “sucker bet”. Yes, that’s easier said than done. But there isn’t a week that goes by where I don’t find myself betting against an obvious “sucker bet” even in a race that I had absolutely no intention of betting when I walked in for the afternoon card. We’ll close out “sucker bets” with some of my favorite “blurbs” already contained in the first 27 parts of this series. Hopefully they will offer some food for thought. I’ll also indicate where they can be found if you’d like to reread a particular section. 1---Trainers aren’t philanthropists, they’re businessmen! (Part 1) 2---Like good trainers, top jockeys are also good businessmen. They very rarely “sit” on losers in a race where they can also ride the winner. (Part 1) 3---I’m sure you’ve heard the absolutely absurd horseracing axiom that “weight brings them all together”! No it doesn’t! It never has and it never will! (Part 2) 4---Almost without exception, establishedminor league runners shipping to major tracks are “sucker bets” and should be tossed out in a heartbeat. (Part 3) 5---I hate horses dropping first out off a claim and so should you! They are big time “sucker bets”! (Part 3) 6---Debut runners showing up in the paddock with front wraps are a big time “no-no”! The horse hasn’t even had a real race and he’s already wrapped up like a mummy? He’s wrapped because he’s problematic-----period! Stay off them! (Part 4) 7---He wins his last outing by 5 going away in good time while well within himself, but gets claimed by a clueless barn. Whudda ya do? You pass him next out unless you’re a “sucker”! (Part 6) 8---A “Breeder’s Cup” number could be defined as a number that is totally out of place in a specific horse’s past performance lines. This sudden extraordinary performance might be the easiest of all last out winners to throw out in their very next starts as “sucker bets”! (Part 7) 9---You can always avoid a “sucker bet” by paying strict attention to any and all surface changes no matter what the class level. (Part 8) 10---These inflated wet track numbers are “sucker bets”. (Part 9) 11---Stay off these last out winning “dream trip” horses. They are always over bet and very rarely repeat. Put another way, they’re “sucker bets”! (Part 12) 12---Do you still think that you can make “valid” numbers on the turf? If you do, you’re a “sucker”! (Part 13) 13---In order to avoid this “sucker bet” you must believe that horses are warm-blooded athletes rather than lifeless machines and you have to get your face out of the past performances long enough to view your potential wager. (Part 14) 14---Good turf trainers always protect their grass runners. When you see a good turf trainer make a negative move with one of his grass horses by running him over the dirt, don’t be “suckered”! (Part 15) 15---When you can clearly see that a horse beat a running bias, don’t be a “sucker”! Put on the mental brakes and ask yourself “did he empty his tank”? He most likely did. What’s more, you can be rest assured that he’ll be a short price at the mutuel windows and offer no value. (Part 16) 16---Trying to pick the “least slow” or the “least unsound” runner in a bottom-feeding claimer is handicapping suicide in the long run and nothing more than a “suckerbet”!!! (Part 17) 17---When Maiden Special Weight dropdowns from capable barns fail to visit the winner’s circle on their very first attempt against maiden claimers, they quickly become “sucker bets” in their next outings no matter how close they finished in their first drop. (Part 18) 18---Do you pay strict attention to a horse’s equipment? Do you notice changes in a horse’s equipment? Do you know what negative equipment produces losses over 90% of the time without regard to any other handicapping factor? Unless you answered “yes” to all three of those questions, you’re making “sucker bets” on a regular basis and you don’t even know it! (Part 20) 19---“First-time front wraps” and the re-adding of wraps by the same barn sends up a big “red flag”! (Part 23) 20---If you do your homework, you will unearth a few trainers on your home circuit that other trainers should never claim from under any circumstances! What’s important is not to be a“sucker” and bet these very negative “claimaways”. (Part 24) 21---When handicapping any turf race and evaluating the past performances of every entrant, does your assessment include the “rail positions” for every turf race for every runner? If it doesn’t, there’s a very good chance that you are about to make a “sucker bet”! (Part 25) I’m not all that sure who first said that “There is a sucker born every day”! I’m going to rephrase that axiom for serious hardcore horseplayers. “There’s a sucker bet(s) on every racing card” Simply avoid them!
|