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SUCKER BETS---(part 16) 26---BETTING A HORSE TO REPEAT THAT WON RUNNING AGAINST THE BIAS Here’s a “sucker bet” that escapes many handicappers no matter how long they’ve been playing our game. It sets up like this. A 50K claimer runs a winning race against legitimate 50K claiming company coming from dead last and does so running against the day’s obvious running bias. For simplicity, let’s say the track that afternoon was clearly favoring front speed where only wire-to-wire types and/or stalker/pressers found the winner’s circle. Midpack runners and closers, with the exception of our 50K claimer, were absolutely no where to be found in any other of the day’s races. If you’d like the up to date running profiles mentioned above for the current track running in Southern California, you can visit this url on my website: http://www.joe-takach.com/Horses_to_Watch/Profile_Current_Track/About_Running_Profiles/SA06WS/HP05Fall/hp 05ss_06.html . Getting back to our 50K closing winner, there’s no doubt that he just ran a huge race because beating a running bias is anything but easy and most likely shows an extra touch of class. However, it can and most often does, “empty a horse’s tank” depleting him of all reserve energy. “Against the running bias” winners most often return to the winner’s circle gasping for air with their sides heaving and their heads lowered. Their tanks are positively on “empty” and they are so tired that the groom could let go of the lead chain and the horse wouldn’t be in any rush to run off. Any reserve energy that he had before the race has been spent beating the bias. Exhaustion is a “given”. Unless offered substantial time to recover, and that doesn’t mean in 2 or 3 weeks, he’ll not repeat next out. A very hard race that takes everything out of a horse, no matter if running against the bias or not, usually calls for 5 to 8 weeks of non racing. He should be given slow workouts to gradually rebuild his strength and energy-----certainly not another race in two or three weeks. Quite often even after a 5 to 8 week rest, he’ll still “need” a race as a “tightener” before another serious crackdown. So when you can clearly see that a horse beat a running bias, don’t be a “sucker”! Put on the mental brakes and ask yourself “did he empty his tank”? He most probably did. What’s more, you can be rest assured that he’ll be a short price at the mutuel windows and offer no value. As a quick “sidebar”, consider for a moment those horses who win running with the bias. That’s a completely different story! For example, a horse running with an early speed bias jumps to the front right out of the gate, sets all the pace while clear a length or two under light rating, and wins with a hand ride while never seeing his rider’s whip. Take a look at him in the winner’s circle. Most likely he isn’t blowing hard and gasping for air with his sides rapidly heaving. He’s anything but totally exhausted as is our “against the bias” winner. Our “with the bias” winner has hardly broken a sweat. He’s still quite full of himself and still a handful for his groom to control. As he “dances” out of the winner’s circle enroute to the testing barn, he still looks quite “fresh” and ready to do it all over again. His tank is not on empty by any stretch of the imagination. Can this guy repeat if realistically placed next out and run back in 2 to 4 weeks? He sure can if he makes a solid paddock appearance and gets a solid pre-race warm up. I’ve written extensively on energy levels over the years and how important they are, as well as how easy they are to spot whether you are on track or at your favorite betting emporium viewing over a satellite monitor. Don’t be “suckered”. Only bet horses with good energy levels that look like they want to run, not those walking with their heads low and bobbing looking for a place to lay down and take a nap. PART 17----MORE “SUCKER” BETS
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